Issue archive · published Sep 18, 2026

115.3

The Marta Walsh Index: Normal — week ending Sep 18, 2026

Inside the wide normal band, where history says the asking price — not the market — determines whether a home sells.

A quiet week: down 0.9 to 115.3, well inside the range where the asking price, not the market, decides outcomes. The median luxury home for sale today has been on the market 98 days. Cuts outnumbered raises 63 to 3 among 1,088 tracked listings, median 3.2%. Off-market, 1,127 homes sit dark after failed campaigns — history expects roughly 171 back on the market within 13 weeks.

this week
Under 70
70–250 · normal
Over 250
Active $2M+ listings
1,183
Exposed for sale on the measurement Friday.
Contracts, trailing 4 weeks
155
Homes going under contract across the tier.
Cut their price
5.8%
63 of 1,088 active sellers, median cut 3.2%.
Waiting off-market
1,127
~171 expected back within 13 weeks.

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Based on information from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service for the period January 1, 1998 through the as-of date. Compiled and analyzed by the author; ARMLS did not produce and does not endorse this analysis.