Welcome to Fall :-) Probably everyone's second favorite season in AZ.

Interesting times for real estate. The 30 year fixed is sitting at 7.49%. That's the news really.

Hope you are enjoying the relatively cool weather and have a great long weekend

Just Listed | Gated New Build in Cave Creek

31709 N 55TH Way, Cave Creek, 85331 | 3 Bedrooms | Den | 3.5 Baths | 3,342 Square Feet

TURNKEY, IMMACULATE! The ONLY ONE available in the highly desired Palomino Estates! Step into luxury with this exquisite 2020 Pulte Home in the exclusive Palomino Estates, nestled in the sought-after Lone Mountain Corridor. Beyond the gates, discover a meticulously maintained oasis boasting mountain views. Immerse yourself in the lap of refinement, with proximity to Scottsdale's finest dining, shopping, hiking, golf, Mayo Clinic, and airports. See more.

MLS Link: Click here | Listed at $1,349,000 | Open House Saturday October 7th 1-3pm.

Coming Soon | New Build Modern Farmhouse

Inside the gates of Whitewing At Whisper Ranch. Modern Ranch / Farmhouse Luxury. A Toll Brothers Development. Built in 2022 with impeccable attention to detail. Features casita with separate entrance, top of the line finishes, expansive premium lot, and so much more. Home has been lightly lived in. Incredible opportunity & value!

9727 E Vallejo Street, Queen Creek, AZ 85142 | 4 Bedrooms | Den | 3.5 Baths | 4,269 Square Feet

Photo's and MLS link coming soon | Offered at $1,850,000

Market Stats

From the Cromford Report.
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Daily Observation October 6th:
Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities ~

This is the most dismal table for sellers we have posted since November 10 last year. All 17 cities have seen their CMI drop over the last month, meaning that power is slipping away from sellers and moving towards buyers.

We do not have to look far to find the most obvious reason - mortgage interest rates. While most pundits predicted rates would fall in the second half of 2023, the shortage of buyers for bonds have caused yields to rise. The typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now around 7.7%, up from 7.3% a month ago. Understandably, buyers are far from enthusiastic about this and in some cases fail affordability tests they could once have passed easily.

This is not the whole story however, because supply is now rising at the fastest rate we have seen since last year. A combination of lower demand and higher supply means the average CMI in the table has fallen by 11.2%, well above the 9.4% drop we measured last week and 7.8% two weeks ago.

Well above average declines can be seen in Chandler, Goodyear, Buckeye, Maricopa and Mesa. Falling but at a much lower speed are Fountain Hills, Tempe and Surprise.

13 out of 17 cities are still sellers markets (for now) with Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek and Maricopa in the balanced zone. However these 4 cities are now below the 100 mark implying that buyers have a slight edge in negotiations. On the current trajectory, these 4 could all be confirmed as buyers' markets before the end of the month.

Among the secondary cities, Laveen and Tolleson did manage small increases in their CMI, but the other 10 cities declined like their larger counterparts.

Our Take

So at first glance this does not look very positive. But there are a few caveats.

Firstly, their CMI index has a base value of 100. Above 100 sellers market, below 1000 buyers market. All the cities in the above chart are over 100.

Supply is so low that any small uptick said supply will cause a larger swing in their index.

Here is the long term index chart. In a historical perspective the only time there was significant and sustained price declines the Cromford Market index was in the 70's and below.

Nothing here really indicates price pressure. It would take a huge catalyst of massive supply to really move that needle.

Coming Soon Listings

We have some coming soon listings in Paradise Valley, McCormick Ranch, Biltmore and North Scottsdale. But in this market things go fast so if you are looking be sure to let us know :-)

Interiors

The use of art in living spaces.

25 Best artificial Christmas trees of 2023.

Outdated cabinet trends to avoid.

In The Neighborhood

Taylor Morrison building additional 1,225 homes in North Phoenix.

Tiger Woods new mini golf opens at Talking Stick.

New gas station at Pima / Dynamite?

Crackerjax redevelopment plans moving ahead.
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That's it folks. Have a great long weekend!